Majority of Mexicans Want International Help to Fight Drug Cartels
“The reason the Americans were found is that the State Department called the foreign secretariat, who called the governor of Tamaulipas and said ‘this has to be solved,’” said Campero. “You have to ask the question, does the state even have the capacity to move on its own?”
How AMLO’s lackluster approval on drug violence could precipitate more U.S. coordination on drug trafficking
And yet, despite relatively poor reviews on drug violence, AMLO enjoys one of the highest leader approval ratings among more than 40 countries that Morning Consult tracks daily. The president himself has highlighted Morning Consult data to demonstrate his popularity, but Moreno says there’s more than meets the eye.
“It’s not AMLO, it’s Mexican political culture,” Moreno said. “Mexicans tend to be supportive of leadership; if you look at the approval for previous Mexican presidents — other than Enrique Peña Nieto — they’re roughly as popular as AMLO.”
A high approval rating didn’t prevent then-Mexican President Felipe Calderón’s PAN party from getting crushed in the 2012 elections. That means there could be dangers for AMLO’s Morena party hidden behind the term-limited incumbent’s 62% job approval rating — particularly given its downward trajectory since December.
Maximo Zaldivar, regional director for the Americas at the International Foundation for Electoral Systems, recently pointed out that AMLO demonstrated his awareness that his personal popularity may not translate to his party by scheduling a recall vote he was sure he would win simultaneous to legislative elections. In other words, he quite literally put himself on the ballot to buoy other candidates.
“The party was uncertain about running without him,” Zaldivar said during a panel discussion at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He added that because Mexican presidents are limited to a single six-year term, “everything is at stake” for Morena in 2024 because they’ll “have to solve the dilemma of how to win an election without him.”
That political pressure may open a window for the Biden administration, which suffers from a poor perception on immigration and border policy at home, to kick drug enforcement cooperation with Mexico back into high gear, and indeed both sides are reportedly mulling an agreement to control guns and fentanyl crossing the border. However, for real results, Campero said Washington must take off the kid gloves.
“When Trump threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico over migration, AMLO did what Trump asked because AMLO responds to power,” she said.
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